To the convention!

Everyone from Atrios to Kevin Drum to David Brooks is calling for Hillary to throw in the towel. She can’t win, they say. The campaign has gotten too negative and dirty. A battle right up to the convention in August would be a disaster for the Democrats. McCain is gaining!

Lets take a breath. I think we are witnessing the hysteria of the political obsessives. Just a couple of points:

  1. Hillary (and Obama) may be dishing some dirt, but its nothing like the dirt any Dem is going to face in the general election—the Hillary Obama tiff will be forgotten after Labor Day.
  2. Polls right now don’t matter. Large numbers of people have no idea how they will vote in November, no matter what they are telling pollsters now—witness huge reversals in polling results vis a vis actual election results in prior presidential elections.
  3. Even if this goes to the convention, the national conversation will change so dramatically afterward that all of this stuff will be forgotten. The policy positions of the parties this year present a very clear choice. Not so in many years when candidates were moving obsessively to the center.
  4. What if it does go to the convention? Isn’t that what conventions are for—choosing candidates?

Just my opinion.

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Filed under elections 08

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